Technology development and defense, and of course war, are inseparable. That means tech matters will be in the background of nearly every discussion at the Munich Security Conference, which begins today. Given that the conference’s chairman, Wolfgang Ischinger, wrote that we live in a time of “wrecking ball politics” in a foreword to an MSC report, we can expect the conference to be dramatic. And this means pivotal, if not world-changing tech matters could be in play.
AI is pretty much the leading candidate for world-changing tech right now. And perhaps the leading AI topic is about AI sovereignty—as in, a nation (or supranational body like the EU) developing and having access to its own cutting-edge AI system. In terms of geopolitics AI is in focus because many of the cutting-edge innovations are happening in the U.S. and China. Historically, from a European point of view, this might have been tolerable, but as Ischinger said, the “recalibration of US foreign policy” under the Trump administration has cast doubt on the reliability of the U.S. as an ally…hence the interest in sovereign AI developments, and a focus on regional data and infrastructure security.
France has been a leader in this direction. This week, French naval defence design outfit Naval Group formed a joint venture with defence company cortAIx, the AI accelerator from France’s Thales Group, to help “accelerate the industrialisation of AI solutions applied to defence systems.” It’s all part of an effort to develop sovereign AI solutions for the defence industry in France.
But France’s push to move out of the United States’ tech shadow goes much further than this: in February last year the nation announced a €109 billion AI infrastructure investment, which some commenters suggested was the most “ambitious” sovereign AI program outside the U.S. and China. And just a few weeks ago the French government announced it was barring official use of U.S. software platforms like Zoom and Microsoft’s Teams and replacing them with its own, locally-developed alternatives. According to David Amiel, minister for the civil service and state reform, the move is to “guarantee the security and confidentiality of public electronic communication.” We can imagine that AI and vibe coding, perhaps from notable French startup Mistral, might be used to help code the French Zoom alternative.
Industry watchers wondered, of course, if other non-U.S. nations might follow suit, including its neighbor Canada. A report in the Independent even reminded us that Austrian soldiers have adopted open-source software as an alternative to U.S.-sourced services from Microsoft and Google, and German politicians have switched to using free alternatives to carry out administrative duties.
As a side note, you’ve got to wonder if the sudden rise of AI-coded solutions may threaten the entire global software-as-a-service model (dominated by U.S. companies) with AI stepping in to craft custom solutions for customers on the fly. And if this happens, will some of these new-gen AI-SaaS solutions be Europe-based?
There are thousands upon thousands of defence tech topics that will surely surface in the Munich debates, but we can be certain that plenty will center on reliance on actual defence hardware manufactured in the U.S.
The impressive, futuristic, but expensive F-35 stealthy strike fighter aircraft may well come up. The U.S. has been attempting to sell these “fifth generation” aircraft, which cost up to $100 million per vehicle, to overseas partners—contracts exist with eight NATO nations and five non-NATO partners. But the program has been hit with cost overruns and technical snags (last week it emerged that manufacturer Lockheed Martin was delivering newer F35s to the USAF with dummy weights in the nose in place of a cutting edge, but very delayed next-gen radar system). Meanwhile, overseas F35s will remain tied to Lockheed Martin due to the complexity of their hardware and software design, raising concerns that a fractious U.S. government could implement a form of “kill switch” by simply withdrawing support.
Canada’s government, which has a decades-old deal (the North American Aerospace Defense Command) with the U.S. to buy 88 of the jets, has recently been publicly considering an alternative. A few weeks ago Sweden’s Saab proposed Canada buy 72 Gripen jets and eight long-rance early warning GlobalEyes drones as an alternative. Gripens are considered advanced fourth, or fourth-and-a.half generation fighters, and cost about as much as F-35s, but the design is long-established, and their per-hour running costs may be about a quarter of the American jets’. CNBC news said the Saab deal would guarantee some 12,600 jobs in Canada.
Industry watchers will be interested to see drones mentioned here, given the dramatic deep tech innovations happening in real time as Ukraine uses drones in ever-more innovative ways against invading Russian forces. It’s timely, too, that Ukraine may soon receive up to 150 Gripen jets of its own (alongside 100 French-made Rafale jets).
Interestingly, Canadian PM Mark Carney and Foreign Minister Anita Anand are expected to take part in the Munich conference. Meanwhile, the U.S. postured in reaction to Canada’s possible Saab deal by threatening, in effect, to intervene in defence matters in Canadian airspace more. The U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, warned that “NORAD would have to be altered,” if Canada opted for the Saab jets which are, he said, not as “interchangeable, interoperable as what the F-35 is.”
Of course AI, jets, and drones are just the posterboys for a lot of tech-centric issues that will be lurking in the background at Munich. Pick a hot topic like data centers in space, the overall space industry, sovereign data control, health tech, and pretty much anything else you can think of, and it may play a part.
All of this boils down to one conclusion: Europe, and other non-U.S. allies, may be attempting a “big unplug” from U.S. defence giants and from other U.S. technology providers too. The moves could have trillion-dollar-scale, long-term implications.
And what’s driving all this fuss? A single person.